Have These Tumbling Cannabis Stocks Hit Bottom Yet?

Shares of cannabis stocks large and small were beaten down after soft second-quarter results disappointed investors expecting soaring sales of recreational cannabis in Canada that haven’t materialized. As a result, some of the world’s largest cannabis companies have stock prices miles below their peaks.

Has the market already pulled these cannabis kings down as far as it can, or could they sink even lower? Here’s what to look for from each one of these formerly high-flying marijuana stocks…

Company (Symbol) Gain (Loss) Since 52-Week High Market Cap
Tilray (NASDAQ:TLRY) (89%) $3.1 billion
Cronos Group(NASDAQ:CRON) (52%) $4.2 billion


1. Tilray: Two more years

During the second quarter of 2019, total revenue bounded 371% higher than the previous year to $45.9 million. Unfortunately for Tilray, that wasn’t the only line item that rose. Over the same period, Tilray reported that the cost of goods soldsoared 504% higher.

During the three months ended June, Tilray’s gross margin fell from 43% of revenue in 2018 to just 27% this year. To Tilray’s credit, operating expenses rose more slowly than top-line revenue but the company still ended up posting a $32.9 million loss.

Another reason investors are nervous about Tilray is its ownership structure. Privateer Holdings is still holding 75 million shares of Tilray, which works out to around 77% of the total shares outstanding. Privateer will fold itself into Tilray and retire its unlocked shares after creating new shares that include a two-year lockup.

It should probably be taken as a sign of confidence that Privateer Holdings hasn’t sold a significant portion of its Tilray shares and is willing to lock up its investment for another two years. However, investors need to think much further ahead than that.

The market’s expectations are still high, and there isn’t much of a cash cushion to fall back on if the company doesn’t start posting positive cash flows in the next several quarters. Tilray finished June with $221 million in cash and securities after losing $33 million during the second quarter.

With a market cap that’s still above $3 billion and a negative tangible book value, this stock is a long way from any bottom. In fact, the stock’s still trading at a sky-high 16.6 times forward revenue expectations, and more trouble meeting those expectations could still result in heavy losses…

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